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Thinking In Bets

Checked
pmprompt·vlatest·other·MIT

This "Thinking In Bets" skill helps you make decisions by framing them as probabilities and potential outcomes, reducing regret & improving strategic choices.

Repository

Install on your platform

Showing Claude Code. One command installs this skill into any of the agents below.

  1. 1

    Run this in your project

    terminal
    $ npx skills add pmprompt/claude-plugin-product-management --skill thinking-in-bets -a claude-code

  2. Uses the open-source skills CLI and needs Node.js. Add -g to install it for your user instead of this project.

What we know about this skill

Publisher

pmprompt

Taken from the source listing. We haven't verified who controls this account.

Install target

Live repository

Not pinned. Installing fetches whatever the repository holds at the time you run the command.

No human has reviewed this code. The checks below are a static scan of the files at one commit — nobody has run this skill or judged whether it works. A skill runs with whatever access you give your agent, so read the source before you install it.

Automated safety checks

scanned

This skill passed all 6 checks. We read its files at one commit and looked for the things that make a skill dangerous to run — not for whether it works.

  • Declares what it does: passed

    SKILL.md parses and declares a name and a description.

    SKILL.md exists, its frontmatter parses, and it declares a name and a description.

  • No undeclared network calls: passed

    Makes no network calls.

    Every host the skill dials — from its scripts, its config endpoints or the commands it tells the agent to run — is either well-known package and API infrastructure or declared in its own frontmatter. Links in documentation are not counted.

  • No obfuscated payloads: passed

    No encoded or obfuscated payloads.

    No base64, hex or compressed blob is decoded and then executed, and no encoded shell commands.

  • No credential access: passed

    Reads no keys, tokens, keychains or credential files.

    Neither the code nor the SKILL.md instructions read SSH keys, cloud credentials, keychains, token stores, browser cookie databases or dotfiles that hold secrets.

  • No pipe-to-shell installers: passed

    No pipe-to-shell or download-and-run installers.

    No `curl … | sh` pattern, in the code or in the instructions, that runs code fetched at run time.

  • Pinned to a commit: passed

    Scanned pmprompt/claude-plugin-product-management at 3114dbe33f.

    The exact upstream commit SHA that was scanned is recorded, so the result refers to specific bytes.

Commit
3114dbe33f
Manifest
skills/thinking-in-bets/SKILL.md
Scanned
1 file, 54 lines
This is a static scan, not a review. It reads the skill's files; it does not run them, and it cannot tell you whether the skill is any good or whether the code does what its description says. A skill runs with whatever access you give your agent.
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About this skill

The thinking-in-bets skill applies Annie Duke’s decision-making framework to help AI agents analyze product scenarios as probabilistic bets rather than certainties. It structures responses to highlight potential outcomes, underlying assumptions, and the specific information needed to resolve uncertainty before committing to a strategy.

When to use it

  • Evaluating high-stakes product launches where market feedback is currently unavailable.
  • Reviewing strategic pivots to ensure the team acknowledges risks rather than assuming guaranteed success.
  • Conducting post-mortems on failed experiments to distinguish between bad luck and flawed logic.
  • Simulating stakeholder discussions by generating arguments for multiple competing hypotheses.

Key capabilities

  • Reframes binary "yes/no" decisions into a spectrum of possible outcomes with assigned probabilities.
  • Identifies hidden assumptions that could invalidate the current strategic approach.
  • Generates specific data points or experiments required to reduce uncertainty effectively.
  • Separates the quality of past decisions from their actual outcomes to encourage learning.

Example prompts

  • "Analyze our plan to enter the Asian market using the thinking-in-bets framework. What are the plausible outcomes and what information do we lack?"
  • "We are debating whether to sunset Feature X. Apply the betting mindset to list the scenarios where this decision succeeds versus fails."
  • "Act as a skeptical stakeholder. Challenge our roadmap by identifying the biggest 'bet' we are making that might be wrong and how to test it."

Tips & gotchas

This skill is most effective when paired with specific product context; without details on your current situation, the agent may generate generic advice. Ensure you provide clear constraints on available resources so the suggested "bets" remain realistic for your team's capacity.